On Monday, South Korea conducted two hours of live-fire exercises near its disputed boundary with North Korea in the West Sea, despite Pyongyang’s promises of “merciless retaliatory strikes” and “total war” for infringing waters it considers its own.
The consensus is that these particular threats were “empty,” as the Associated Press termed them, but it’s far too early to say the matter is closed.
Why? Because the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, as the North calls itself, apparently—and for good reason—believes that attacking South Korea and killing its citizens advances its national interests.
First, Pyongyang has been trying for years to move its West Sea boundary with South Korea, known as the Northern Limit Line, farther south to give it control of additional islands and waters. The line was unilaterally drawn by the US-led United Nations Command after the Korean War, and Pyongyang has attacked this South Korean territory from time to time in failed attempts to force a border adjustment. In 2010, there were two startling provocations in these same waters: the sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan in March (46 killed) and the November shelling of Yeonpyeong Island (four killed, including two civilians). The area will likely be home to trouble again in the near future.
Second, the North needs food, and the Kim family has traditionally provoked incidents to blackmail the international community into coughing up food aid. The tactic may be murderous, but Western leaders have made it an effective approach by routinely caving to the North’s extortion.
Third, Kim Jong Un may try to use an incident to undercut South Korea’s conservative politicians—who take a harder line against Pyongyang than their “progressive” counterparts—as the country heads into parliamentary elections in April and a presidential election in December. Kim doesn’t get to vote in the South, but it would be foolish to think he wouldn’t use force to influence the outcome of elections there. After all, horrific provocations are a specialty of the Kim family: the two attacks of 2010 look like they had some effect in undermining hard-line President Lee Myung-bak, contributing to the ruling party’s stunning loss of the Seoul mayoralty last October.
Fourth, Kim needs to solidify a somewhat precarious position as heir to his family’s regime, now entering its third generation in power. There are signs of turmoil inside Pyongyang. The commerce minister recently died in a helicopter accident that looks like it was anything but, and the new leader’s half brother, Kim Jong Nam, has, with a series of explosive comments, been evidently trying to destabilize the government from the safety of China. In the North’s twisted logic, unprovoked attacks against the South could well be seen as a way to unify and rally regime elements as well as boost the legitimacy of the latest Kim family dictator.
North Korea can be relied upon to carry through on its threats. It picks the time and the targets well, and it acts for maximum benefit. So just because Pyongyang has not immediately reacted to the most recent South Korean artillery exercise does not mean the matter is forgotten.
The North will strike the South. We just do not know when or where
ChanneledKnowledgeTV
Thursday, February 23, 2012
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Monday, February 20, 2012
Iran Haults sale of Oil to French and British Companies
Iran has halted oil sales to British and French companies, the nation's oil ministry has said.
A spokesman was reported as saying on the ministry's website that Iran would "sell our oil to new customers".
European Union member states had earlier agreed to stop importing Iranian crude from 1 July.
The move is intended to pressure Tehran to stop enriching uranium, which can be used for civilian nuclear purposes but also to build warheads.
Iran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful, but the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency says it has information suggesting Iran has carried out tests "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device".
Sunday's statement on the oil ministry website was attributed to spokesman Ali Reza Nikzad Rahbar.
BBC world affairs correspondent Peter Biles says it appears to be another act of retaliation in the showdown between Iran and the West.
The French news agency AFP says the decision is not expected to have a big impact. Last year France bought only 3% of its oil - 58,000 barrels per day (b/d) - from Iran and the UK imported even less Iranian oil. A UK government official told the BBC there would be "no impact on UK energy security".
Some Iranian media had announced on Wednesday that Iran had stopped oil exports to the Netherlands, Greece, France, Portugal, Spain and Italy in retaliation for the EU's oil embargo, but this was later denied by the oil ministry.
The EU oil embargo, agreed last month, was phased so member states that were relatively dependent on Iranian crude - notably Greece, Spain and Italy - had enough time to find alternative sources.
The bloc currently buys about 20% of Iran's oil exports, which account for a majority of government revenue.
However, Iran's Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said that a cut in exports to Europe would not hurt Tehran.
Oil industry sources quoted by Reuters news agency say Iran's top oil buyers in Europe have already started reducing purchases of Iranian crude.
Last year Iran supplied more than 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) to the EU and Turkey, but by the start of this year that had dropped to about 650,000 b/d, Reuters reported on Thursday.
France's energy giant Total has stopped buying Iranian crude and Royal Dutch Shell, one of the biggest purchasers of Iranian oil, has cut back sharply, market sources told Reuters.
According to Reuters estimates, Tupras of Turkey was the biggest European customer for Iranian oil in 2011, taking about 200,000 b/d, followed by Total (100,000 b/d), Shell (100,000 b/d), Hellenic of Greece (80,000 b/d) and Cepsa of Spain (70,000 b/d).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17089953
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